Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2012 Jul 26 2200 UTC Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The only C-class flare of the reporting period was a C1 at 26/1953Z from new Region 1532 (S20E67). New flux emergence was observed in the northwest quadrant and was numbered as Region 1531 (N15W59). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 23/1545Z, reached a maximum flux of 12 pfu at 23/2145Z and ended at 24/1800Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day 1 (27 July). By mid to late on day 2 (28 July), a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active periods. Unsettled to active periods are expected on day 3 (29 July) due to the combined effects of the CH HSS and the 25 July coronal mass ejection. III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Jul 115 Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 115/115/120 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 125 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 000/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 006/005-011/015-015/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/25/35 Minor storm 01/10/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor storm 10/25/30 Major-severe storm 05/30/50
Space Weather News for July 12, 2012
EARTH-DIRECTED X-FLARE: Big sunspot AR1520 erupted on July 12th around 16:53 UT, producing an X-class solar flare and hurling a CME directly toward Earth. Forecasters expect the cloud to arrive on July 14th. Its impact could spark moderate to severe geomagnetic storms, allowing auroras to be seen at lower latitudes than usual. Check http://spaceweather.com for more information and updates.