Solar Section        

 
 

Space Weather – 3 day forecast

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Jul 26 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The only C-class flare of the
reporting period was a C1 at 26/1953Z from new Region 1532 (S20E67).
New flux emergence was observed in the northwest quadrant and was
numbered as Region 1531 (N15W59).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for a C-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 23/1545Z, reached a
maximum flux of 12 pfu at 23/2145Z and ended at 24/1800Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (27 July).  By mid to late on day 2
(28 July), a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is
expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active periods.
Unsettled to active periods are expected on day 3 (29 July) due to
the combined effects of the CH HSS and the 25 July coronal mass
ejection.

III.  Event Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jul 115
Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul  115/115/120
90 Day Mean        26 Jul 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul  000/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  006/005-011/015-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/25/35
Minor storm           01/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           10/25/30
Major-severe storm    05/30/50
 
 

Space Weather News for July 12, 2012
http://spaceweather.com

EARTH-DIRECTED X-FLARE: Big sunspot AR1520 erupted on July 12th around 16:53 UT, producing an X-class solar flare and hurling a CME directly toward Earth. Forecasters expect the cloud to arrive on July 14th. Its impact could spark moderate to severe geomagnetic storms, allowing auroras to be seen at lower latitudes than usual. Check http://spaceweather.com for more information and updates.

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