Solar Section        

 
 

Space Weather – 3 day forecast

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Jul 26 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The only C-class flare of the
reporting period was a C1 at 26/1953Z from new Region 1532 (S20E67).
New flux emergence was observed in the northwest quadrant and was
numbered as Region 1531 (N15W59).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for a C-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 23/1545Z, reached a
maximum flux of 12 pfu at 23/2145Z and ended at 24/1800Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (27 July).  By mid to late on day 2
(28 July), a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is
expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active periods.
Unsettled to active periods are expected on day 3 (29 July) due to
the combined effects of the CH HSS and the 25 July coronal mass
ejection.

III.  Event Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jul 115
Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul  115/115/120
90 Day Mean        26 Jul 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul  000/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  006/005-011/015-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/25/35
Minor storm           01/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           10/25/30
Major-severe storm    05/30/50

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